GENEVA – Amid a gloomy global trade outlook, Africa is emerging as a rare bright spot. The World Trade Organization (WTO) projects that the continent’s merchandise trade will continue growing in 2025, with exports and imports showing resilience despite rising tariffs and deepening policy uncertainty worldwide.
According to the WTO’s latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, African merchandise exports are forecast to rise by 0.6% in 2025, while imports are expected to increase by a robust 6.5%.
This outlook contrasts sharply with the global forecast, which anticipates a 0.2% decline in overall world merchandise trade next year.
WTO economists attribute Africa’s stability to its role as a producer of energy and raw materials, sectors with consistent demand even as global trade volumes shrink.
The report noted that the collective contribution of other regions, including Africa, remains positive and varies very little, pointing to the region’s relative insulation from the trade disruption affecting major economies such as North America and Asia.
The resilience also reflects Africa’s growing diversification in trade partnerships and product categories.
While global powers face steep declines, North America, for instance, is projected to subtract 1.7 percentage points from global trade growth, Africa continues to move forward, albeit at a measured pace.
In 2024, Africa’s merchandise exports grew by 1.3% and imports by 1.8%, laying the groundwork for the continued momentum forecast in 2025.
The report also indicates that Africa’s gross domestic product is expected to grow by 4% in 2025, further strengthening trade flows on the continent.
While the WTO acknowledges risks ahead, such as a potential resurgence of U.S. tariffs or the broader spread of trade policy uncertainty, the African continent appears better positioned than many of its global counterparts to weather the turbulence.
Africa’s travel exports were up 9% as many countries in the region recorded double-digit growth, including Namibia (+26%), Tanzania (19%) and Uganda (13%). According to the report, South and Central America and the Caribbean saw a 10% rise.
In 2024, growth of digitally delivered services continued to outpace goods. According to preliminary estimates by the WTO Secretariat, Africa’s exports surged by 13%, twice the global rate, while its exports of goods expanded by less than 2%.
