Moments of geopolitical conflict often reshape the global economy in ways that extend far beyond the battlefield. Energy markets tighten, supply chains shift and governments begin searching for secure partners and resources.
These pressures are already visible in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury. When the United States and Israel launched the operation against Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, the Middle East was plunged into regional war.
The immediate fallout has been severe, leaving thousands dead while disrupting aviation networks and sending energy markets into a tense brace for economic shock.
The immediate African reaction was diplomatic and urgent, with leaders across the continent calling for restraint and de-escalation. The appeals received little attention from the powers driving the conflict.
The African Union and regional powers from Pretoria to Algiers issued formal communiqués warning of regional destabilization and calling for de-escalation.
Washington and Tel Aviv offered little response while the military sorties continued.
The task for African policymakers is not to serve as the world’s moral conscience by attempting to halt foreign missiles. It is to ensure African populations do not end up paying the economic cost of those missiles. Moral appeals rarely shield our economies. Calculated leverage can.
For decades, African economies have absorbed the fallout of conflicts that begin far beyond the continent.
When tensions rise in the Middle East, the effects ripple through global energy markets, driving up fuel prices, inflation and transport costs worldwide. Much of this turbulence is tied to instability around the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint at the center of global oil flows.
Economists often describe the resulting energy shock as the “Hormuz Tax,” a reminder of how instability around the Strait of Hormuz ripples through economies far beyond the region and is too often treated as unavoidable in Africa.
Window of Opportunity
The resulting panic in the Global North presents a rare policy window. When major powers go to war, they begin searching urgently for secure resources and dependable geography. Africa holds both in abundance, which means the continent is no longer merely a passive arena for geopolitical competition and is emerging as a decisive swing bloc in a rapidly shifting global order.
The economics of the conflict are striking, as analysts estimate that the United States spent nearly $5.8 billion in the first 100 hours of Operation Epic Fury alone.
If the Global North holds what amounts to a blank check for regional wars, African states should recognize they hold leverage to secure their own supply chains and sovereign interests.
Competition for influence across the Global South is already underway. Weeks before Epic Fury began, Israel recognized Somaliland in a move widely viewed as an effort to secure strategic access near the Gulf of Aden as instability spread across the Red Sea region.
To use this leverage effectively, African governments must rethink how they negotiate global alignment. In the past, leaders often relied on the continent’s 54 votes in the United Nations General Assembly.
That approach carries limited weight with a U.S. administration that treats international institutions with open skepticism.
Washington may dismiss the United Nations while remaining deeply wary of expanding influence from Beijing and Moscow.
The real leverage lies in Africa’s capacity to operate as a unified nonaligned bloc that can grant or deny strategic access.
When major powers seek alignment during a global crisis, that alignment should carry a premium that includes debt restructuring and binding technology transfers.
That premium should also apply to the resources beneath African soil, as the continent controls roughly 70 percent of the world’s cobalt and about 60 percent of its manganese.
With Gulf infrastructure under direct threat and Western economies attempting to secure supply chains, these minerals now sit at the center of national security planning in both the West and the East.
Africa is positioned as the most viable large-scale supplier outside active conflict zones. The era of exporting raw minerals should give way to a firm requirement that partners build refining and processing capacity on African soil.
Geography as Leverage
As the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding airspace move closer to active war conditions, global logistics networks are already shifting south.
Commercial ships cannot reliably pass through heavily contested waters. Coastal states from Senegal to South Africa sit along the alternative maritime corridor around the Cape of Good Hope.
Flights linking Europe and Asia must increasingly route through African airspace, creating opportunities to expand refueling hubs and raise overflight revenues.
Airports in Addis Ababa, Nairobi and Kigali are positioned to capture a surge in traffic if governments invest quickly in capacity.
In return for keeping global supply chains moving, African states should require significant investment in logistics infrastructure.
Smaller states and developing regions are often told to wait out global crises. In a multipolar system defined by persistent conflict, waiting amounts to surrendering agency.
Operation Epic Fury is a tragedy for the Middle East and the globe at large. It is also a moment of clarity for Africa.
The world rarely offers the continent a seat at its most consequential tables. African leaders must use the leverage already in their hands to build one.
The competition for influence across the Global South has begun, and Africa has the ability to set the terms.
